Zhonghuan (002129) In-depth Report： Photovoltaic oligarch firm semiconductor set sail, silicon wafer leader has been formed
Zhonghuan (002129) In-depth Report: Photovoltaic oligarch firm semiconductor set sail, silicon wafer leader has been formed
Report Summary: Focusing on single crystal technology and becoming a leader in the industry: The company takes district melting single crystal technology as its core competitiveness and lays out two major areas of photovoltaic and semiconductor wafers. The photovoltaic single crystal technology and production capacity are leading the world; semiconductor zone melting single crystal wafersThe comprehensive strength is the third in the world. The foreign market share exceeds 18% and the domestic market share exceeds 80%.
In 2018, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.7 billion, and its compound revenue growth rate over the ten years reached 34%.
The two industries in which the company is located are in an upward cycle, and the company’s new capacity is gradually being released. The “PV + semiconductor” two-wheel drive, the company’s performance is expected to maintain rapid growth.
One of the duopoly of photovoltaic silicon wafers, the pattern is stable, the industry is improving, and the profitability is strong.
In 2018, the company’s monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity reached 25GW (cumulative 18GW). It is planned to reach 30GW (conversion 25GW) through technological transformation in 2019. If the fifth phase of the Inner Mongolia project is successfully completed in 2020, the total production capacity will reach 50GW, which is equivalent to that of Longji.
Monocrystalline silicon wafer duopoly structure is stable, and the photovoltaic industry is in the final stage of parity on the Internet, the driving force of the industry is changing from “policy + substitution” to “market + cost”. It is expected that after parity, global demand will grow linearly and steadily, alternatingCrystal accelerated replacement of polycrystalline silicon, strong demand for single crystal silicon wafers, and at the same time, the upstream more calibrated silicon raw material capacity will be gradually released in 2019, and the scale of downstream PERC cells will be expanded, and the profitability of single crystal silicon wafers will be significantly improved.
It is expected that the company’s wafer gross profit margin will reach more than 20% in 2019, which is obviously warmer than 2018.
The domestic leader in semiconductor wafers is expected to enjoy domestic alternative growth space.
The emergence of new growth points such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things has brought the semiconductor industry into a new development cycle. At the same time, the semiconductor industry has changed to China, and localization has ushered in opportunities.
In 2017, the global semiconductor budget exceeded $ 400 billion and entered a boom cycle. There was a shortage of silicon wafer supply, and both volume and price rose.
Zhonghuan is the leader of domestic semiconductor wafers. In 2018, Tianjin Zhonghuan has formed a production capacity of 300,000 wafers / month for 8-inch polishing wafers.
With the company’s large-scale silicon wafer project proceeding smoothly, it is estimated that by 2022, 8-inch production capacity will be 750,000 wafers and 12-inch 600,000 wafers / month.
Become a globally competitive semiconductor silicon wafer company.
Company profit forecast and investment grade: We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 13 respectively.
400,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.
The current anniversary corresponds to PE values of 26, 17, and 13 times in 2019-2021.
It is optimistic that the company’s photovoltaic silicon chip leader is solid, semiconductors are beginning to increase volume, and the performance is flexible. For the first time, the coverage is 武汉夜生活网 given a “strong recommendation” level.
Risk warning: The downstream demand for photovoltaics is less than expected, and the progress of semiconductor wafer projects is less than expected.